The "Third China" in the 21st Century


Bush administration decision weakens Taiwan's position

July 21, 2008
Fort Worth Star-Telegram

by John Tkacik, Jr. , Gary Schmitt '

Not long after becoming president in 2001, George Bush said he would do "anything it takes to help Taiwan defend herself." But when he leaves office in January, he will have created a situation that seriously undermines that pledge.

The Bush administration had blocked nearly $16 billion in U.S. arms transfers to Taiwan.

Beijing's Olympic Message: China Will Do What It Wants

August 29, 2008

The blazing pageantry of the Beijing Olympics -- the most spectacular Olympian celebration in over 70 years -- is rightfully being heralded as the symbol of China' arrival as a global power. The bright Olympic spotlight showed the world a Chinese communist regime that is secure in its power, even if not in its legitimacy. While China cared deeply about the impression it made during its time in the international limelight (cared to the tune of $44 billion) such concern does not extend outside the Olympic venues.

Taiwan's Election Changes the Context of U.S.-Taiwan Relations

June 16, 2004
Apple Daily - Taipei

Most observers in Washington believe that President Chen Shui-bian's victory in the March 20 election will be sustained through the recounts and the independent investigation into the assassination attempt and official Washington is now coming to the realization that his victory marks a dramatic turning-point in Taiwan's history. It also presents American policy makers with a new context for the United States' relationship with Taiwan.

Offer Real Support, Not Excuses, for Taiwan's WHO Bid

April 29, 2004

Taiwan's participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) will be a major topic at the World Health Assembly (WHA) in Geneva on May 17-22, 2004. The United States should take the lead in supporting Taiwan's participation in the WHO and other international bodies because it is in the U.S. national interest. The more Taiwan is accepted into the international community as a valuable contributor, the less legitimate is China's claim of a legal right to use force against Taiwan. Delegitimizing the use of force in the Taiwan Strait also lessens the likelihood of conflict.

Needed: High-level Contacts between U.S. and Taiwan MilitaryCommanders

June 18, 2004

In March 1996, when Chinese ballistic missiles were splashing into waters off Taiwan's two major ports-closing the heavily-traveled Taiwan Strait to international maritime traffic for days-the Clinton Administration sent two carrier task forces to the vicinity to persuade Beijing to quiet things down. But none of the commanders on those American ships had ever done contingency consulting with Taiwan defense officials. Nor did they have secure communication links to Taiwan's navy.

End U.S. Foot-Dragging on Taiwan Sale

September 20, 2004
Defense News

Should the United States treat Taiwan like any other friendly or allied country?

This question has become more critical recently as U.S. President George W. Bush's administration has delayed issuing a routine congressional notification of arms sales to Taipei. There is growing fear that Chinese pressure is taking a toll, and every hint of U.S. reluctance only further emboldens Beijing.

China's Power Struggle by the Sea

August 19, 2004
The Asian Wall Street Journal

When China's Xinhua news agency published an adulatory report of a conference at the seaside resort of Beidaihe on August 5, [1] I was puzzled. Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao had banned these meetings as a waste of money and time - they were boondoggles. And China's media (at least the press that wasn't totally in the control of the Central Propaganda Department) praised President Hu's policy as a "populist measure in support of good government" (qinmin qinglian).

China's 'peaceful' rise at stake in power struggle

September 8, 2004
The Asia Times

 China's 'peaceful' rise at stake in power struggle
Published on September 8, 2004 by John Tkacik, Jr. and John Tkacik

China's New Challenge to the U.S.-Japan Alliance

July 13, 2004


As Chinese warships and naval survey vessels ply Japanese waters hoping to stake their claim to potentially gas-rich seabeds, the United States is sending mixed signals to Japan on the U.S.-Japan alliance. Ambiguity in Washington may undermine Japanese confidence in the alliance-in itself, a major strategic goal for Beijing. Washington must now publicly support Japan, our most important ally in Asia, if it hopes to deter China from further adventurism in Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone.

Provocative Behavior

Blair Could Make a Strategic Error on China

June 7, 2004

 British Prime Minister Tony Blair is reportedly on the verge of supporting the French proposal to lift the European Union's (EU) arms ban on the People's Republic of China (PRC).1 If true, Mr. Blair would be making a major strategic error that could harm the Anglo-U.S. special relationship. Ultimately, the issue is whether weapons made by America's European allies--including Britain--would ever be used to kill Americans if the United States became involved in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

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