The "Third China" in the 21st Century

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The 1954 Hainan Incident: How Chinese fighter pilots caused another international incident, and how Chinese diplomats resolved it

April 12, 2001
China Business Intelligence


 April 12, 2001

By John J. Tkacik


Washington, April 12, 2001: Now that the Washington and Beijing have successfully passed the crisis point of this latest "Hainan Incident", I am reminded of another, eerily similar incident in July 1954. There are lessons from history about "keeping an even strain" that might have helped both Beijing and Washington deal more effectively with the crisis. In the end, decision-makers in Washington seem to have learned these lessons better than their counterparts in Beijing.

The 1949 Mukden Incident: Lessons of history from a previous U.S.-China hostage affair

April 9, 2001
China Business Intelligence

 Washington, D.C. April 9, 2001: A half century ago, Chinese communist troops held the staff and families of the U.S. Consulate General in Mukden (now Shenyang) hostage for over a year. Times were different then, but a look back into history gives insights into the mindset of China's present leaders. Internal politics paralyzed early decision-making in the Chinese leadership, while the State Department sought to downplay the issue in an effort to keep it from escalating.

Taiwan's Presidential Inauguration Democracy Rules

May 19, 2000
China OnLine

By John J. Tkacik

Mr. Chen Shui-bian will be sworn in as Taiwan's new president tomorrow because he played by the rules. Perhaps more than any other politician in Taiwan - or in China, for that matter - attorney Chen Shui-bian understands that democracy is played according to constitutional rules which legitimate both the political system and the leaders it elects. Although the President-elect is a firm believer in "Taiwan Independence," he was elected under the constitution of the "Republic of China," and - well - that makes him Chinese.

Fraying Nationalists Offer Taiwan's New President Greatest Challenge

March 20, 2000
China OnLine


By John J. Tkacik

 With the defeat of the Nationalist Party who have ruled the island since 1949, Taiwan's President-elect Chen Shui-bian has vastly more to worry about than Beijing's sullen silence or Washington's nagging as he prepares this Monday morning for his post-election transition meeting with top advisors and aides.

The 2000 Taiwan Election: Democracy on Steroids

March 17, 2000
China OnLine


By John J. Tkacik

Democracy in Taiwan is fully caffeinated. It tingles, makes you nervous, gets the blood pumping through the veins. Taiwan's 22 million people include 15 million voters -- of whom 75% are expected to vote tomorrow in the island's second presidential election.

The Ah-Bian Surprise?

March 16, 2000
China OnLine


 By John J. Tkacik

Is the Clinton Administration Still Committed to the “Six Assurances”?

February 18, 2000

 Washington's official policy toward Taiwan has been based on the "Taiwan Relations Act" – which takes precedence over the U.S.-China Communiques by virtue of its status as the "law of the land" – and by the lesser-known "Six Assurances." This paper describes the "Six Assurances" and assesses the Clinton Administration's faithfulness to these commitments made by a previous administration directly to the Taiwan government.

The "Six Assurances"

It Depends on What "One China" Means

September 13, 1999
The Washington Times

 By John J. Tkacik

Beijing Hardliners Gain Stronger Hand as China's WTO Hopes to Go Up in Smoke

May 11, 1999
China OnLine

 Hopes for China's quick entry into the World Trade Organization, or for it to achieve permanent "Normal Trade Relations" status, are going up in the smoke of China's pulverized Belgrade Embassy -- and the US Consul General's now burned-out residence in Chengdu.

Admiral Joseph Prueher's Name Floated as Next U.S. Ambassador to China

May 6, 1999
China OnLine

By John J. Tkacik

 The former Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, Admiral Joseph Prueher, is back in the U.S.-China news, with Washington Post political columnist Al Kamen yesterday reporting the White House will name Prueher (pronounced pree-yer) to replace former U.S. Senator James Sasser as the next U.S. ambassador in Beijing.

A spokesman for the White House today would not confirm Kamen's report.

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