How to win a Wargame in the Taiwan Strait

November 5, 2014
China Business Intelligence

… First, assume US fighters have a 100% kill rate, and Chinese fighters have a 0% kill rate . . .  Oops!  We still lose.

 … Or you could just sell modern fighters to Taiwan and let them shoulder some of the burden of defending the Strait, eh?

 . . . I refer to this article from this morning's RealClearDefense . . .
November 5, 2014
Is a "Missile Truck" the Solution to One of the Scariest Wargames Ever?
By Dustin Walker


" . . . . In August 2008, the RAND Corporation joined military leaders at Hickham Air Force Base in Hawaii for a wargame entitled “Pacific Vision.” The exercise was meant to identify the capabilities U.S. Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) would need to prevail against potential threats in the Asia-Pacific region through 2016. At least one of the scenarios examined in the wargame was truly frightening.
As Paul Scharre of the Center for a New American Security recently summarized in an op-ed for The National Interest:
[The RAND study] analyzed a U.S.-China air war over Taiwan made the bold assumption that every air-to-air missile fired from a U.S. F-22 hit a Chinese fighter (100 percent kill rate) and that every Chinese missile missed the U.S. F-22s (0 percent kill rate). In their simulation, the United States still lost the fight. The F-22s ran out of missiles and the Chinese fighters were able to go after vulnerable tankers and command and control aircraft. A far more detailed simulation the following year showed the same results. Even though U.S. F-22s were pegged with a 27-to-1 qualitative advantage over Chinese fighters, their diminished numbers and the fact that they had to fight from long range meant the Chinese had vastly superior numbers and won the fight. . . . "

By the way ... here are some relevant passages from the Taiwan Relations Act (1979):
(TITLE 22 - FOREIGN RELATIONS AND INTERCOURSE  ; CHAPTER 48 - TAIWAN RELATIONS   Sec. 3301. Congressional findings and declaration of policy . . . It is the policy of the United States  . . .(6) to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan….Sec. 3302. Implementation of United States policy with regard to Taiwan (a) Defense articles and services …In furtherance of the policy set forth in section 3301 of this title, the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.)



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